Cincinnati first-year general manager Wayne Krivsky is on an urgent rescue mission to save an endangered species: The Reds pitching prospect. Near the top of his list of hurlers avoiding career extinction is 20-year-old right-hander Homer Bailey, the Reds' No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft.
Sadly there is no goat, save possibly prior Reds management, to tag for the curse that has turned the Reds' minor league bullpens into the Hurlers Hall of Horrors.
Chris Gruler, the top pick in 2002, underwent three shoulder operations and has wound up in the Gulf Coast rookie league. Bobby Basham, the No. 7 pick in 2001, had surgery to repair a torn labrum and was traded to San Diego during the spring. Ty Howington, the top pick in 1999, also had surgery to repair a torn labrum, was released and now pitches in independent ball. Ryan Wagner, the top pick in 2003, made his major league debut 40 days after last pitching for the University of Houston, was sidelined most of last season with an inflamed shoulder and was traded in July to Washington.
Despite having a fastball that's topped out at 98, with 96 to 97 more the norm, plus a nose-to-toes curveball when he stays on top of it, the 6-4 Bailey quite likely won't see lights brighter than those of the Southern League unless he tunes up his repertoire of pitches.
After going 3-5 with a 3.31 ERA, replete with 79 whiffs in 70 2/3 innings for Class-A Sarasota, Bailey was promoted to Chattanooga. Through his first six starts he was 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings.
The initial numbers at the new level seem promising, but our sources tell us that Bailey needs to improve his changeup and command to advance.
He will do it, at least for this year, in Chattanooga where Krivsky figures that Bailey will pitch about 80 innings, enabling him to max out at 150 for the season.
That's on top of the 104 innings he pitched last season for Dayton, for whom he worked as many as five innings only six times.
"I think his changeup has improved to the point for it's at least average and sometimes above-average," said a National League scout. "The Reds, to me, are doing the right thing. (The Southern League) is where he belongs. He's a mature kid and he can dominate if he's handled correctly."
He joins the ranks of the promising pitchers in an organization in need of more home grown talent at 38 in the MLN FAB50 Baseball 2006 rankings.
- Mike SCANDURA
